Bear Creek Weekly: Polymarket hires Goldman Sachs partner Lisa Mantil to build institutional business
Issue of 5 October 2026
What happened last week.
- Markets Polymarket hires Goldman Sachs partner Lisa Mantil to build institutional business
Polymarket has brought on Lisa Mantil, a nearly 30-year Goldman Sachs veteran, as head of institutional growth, CNBC reported. The hire signals the prediction market exchange's push to pull large traders onto its platform as the sector tries to move beyond its retail base. Institutional adoption remains early-stage, and a regulatory fight over sports-event contracts is keeping some players on the sidelines.
- Economy UVM Surgeon Wins $38M ARPA-H Contract to Build AI Digital Twins for ICU Patients
Gary An, a trauma surgeon at the University of Vermont's Larner College of Medicine, has received a research contract worth up to $38 million from the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health to develop AI-powered digital twins that model a critically ill patient's immune response in real time. The goal is to let clinicians test treatments on a virtual replica of the patient before administering them. Business Insider Markets reported the award is the largest in UVM history.
- Money Retirement happiness gap tied to adventure hobbies, not savings targets, Wes Moss survey finds
A survey of thousands of retirees by author Wes Moss found that 57% of unhappy retirees report zero adventure-related interests, while happy retirees average nearly twice as many. The data, drawn from research behind Moss's book The Retire Sooner Method, suggests that how retirees fill their time matters as much as how they funded their accounts. For financial professionals advising clients on retirement readiness, the findings point to a planning gap that balance sheets alone do not capture.
- Investing MercadoLibre trades near multi-year valuation lows as growth investments weigh on earnings
MercadoLibre's stock has fallen over the past year as competition and rising loan losses pressure near-term profits, but the company's first-half revenue still grew 50% year over year. The Motley Fool argues the selloff reflects deferred profits rather than structural decline, and that the current valuation sits near multi-year lows. Here is what the numbers show and what remains unresolved.
- Economy Bank of Japan Cuts Balance Sheet by ¥131 Trillion While Rate Hikes Stay Minimal
The Bank of Japan shed another ¥15.5 trillion from its balance sheet in the third quarter, bringing total asset reductions since the Q1 2024 peak to ¥131 trillion. The central bank is leaning on quantitative tightening as its primary tool against yen weakness and persistent inflation, even as its policy rate sits at just 1.25%. Long-term Japanese Government Bond yields have moved sharply in response.
- Money Fed hits American Express with AML enforcement action over suspicious activity failures
The Federal Reserve has issued a formal enforcement action against American Express Company, citing failures in detecting and reporting suspicious activity tied to money laundering. The Fed also found material weaknesses in how the company ran its enterprise-wide anti-money laundering program, particularly at its national bank subsidiary. A parallel action from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency targets that bank directly.
- Investing Meyer Global Management and its chief executive accused of defrauding pre-IPO fund investors
The Securities and Exchange Commission has charged Meyer Global Management LLC and its chief executive, Owen E.H. Meyer, with defrauding retail investors across multiple schemes tied to SpaceX and other pre-IPO securities. The SEC alleges the defendants misappropriated client money to cover Meyer's personal expenses, sent investors falsely inflated account statements, and forced investors to sign releases accepting less than they were owed. A federal lawsuit has been filed in New York seeking disgorgement, penalties and a conduct-based injunction against Meyer personally.
- Markets Life Biosciences reports first human data on ER-100 glaucoma gene therapy
Life Biosciences has released interim Phase 1 data showing its ER-100 gene therapy was well-tolerated in three open-angle glaucoma patients through 56 days, with two showing early signs of visual field improvement. The Data Safety Monitoring Board has cleared the trial to advance to a higher dose level. The results mark the first time the company's epigenetic restoration approach has been tested in humans.
- Money Rosenwald Private Wealth, $1.1B Baltimore RIA, joins Indivisible Partners platform
A Baltimore wealth management team with roughly $1.1 billion under management has left its prior structure to operate as an independent firm under Indivisible Partners. The move gives Rosenwald Private Wealth access to operational infrastructure and technology while retaining its client relationships and planning approach built over nearly three decades. High-net-worth and multigenerational family clients are the primary constituency affected.
- Money Goldman survey: 37% of top earners still living paycheck to paycheck
A Goldman Sachs Asset Management survey of more than 5,000 individuals finds that financial strain in retirement saving is not confined to lower-income workers. Thirty-seven percent of those earning above $500,000 annually report living paycheck to paycheck, a figure that has implications for how advisers and plan sponsors think about who actually needs support. The results were released September 30.
- Economy Chinese Demand Drives Cross-Border Surrogacy Market as Domestic Ban Holds
A cross-border surrogacy industry serving Chinese clients has grown substantially, with new research suggesting China is the single largest source of international intended parents using US surrogates. The Financial Times, cited by Marginal Revolution, reports that demand is broadening beyond fertility-challenged couples to younger women who are physically able to conceive but are weighing career and lifestyle considerations. The economics span a wide range, with some overseas packages available for as little as $63,000.
- Investing VYM yields more, but VIG has returned more over the past decade
Vanguard's two dividend ETFs split on what a retiree is buying. VYM's 30-day SEC yield is 0.84 percentage points higher, while VIG has compounded faster over the past ten years, according to an analysis published October 11, 2026.