Markets
XRP fell 9% in a week despite 105M coins leaving exchanges, here is why
By Bear Creek Staff, . Bear Creek Capital Network.
XRP was trading near $1.40 as of October 9, down about 9% on the week and roughly 62% below its all-time high of $3.65, according to 24/7 Wall St. The decline puzzled holders who had watched large wallets pull coins off major exchanges, a pattern that historically precedes price gains rather than losses.
CryptoQuant data, as reported by 24/7 Wall St, shows Binance's XRP balance fell from around 2.70 billion coins on September 26 to approximately 2.63 billion by October 4, a reduction of about 73 million XRP. On Upbit, another 32 million XRP left between September 11 and October 5. Whale-sized transfers accounted for 84.2% of Binance's XRP outflows on September 29, with retail transfers making up the remaining 15%.
Santiment data, also cited by 24/7 Wall St, showed that wallets in the 10 million to 100 million XRP range added to their combined holdings, taking the total from 12.48 billion XRP on September 6 up to 13.8 billion by October 6. Most of that increase came in a single jump around September 24, suggesting one large holder rather than broad accumulation across many buyers.
The withdrawal figures, however, tell only part of the story. Over the same 30-day window, Binance received roughly 1.6 billion XRP in deposits, the highest inflow the exchange had seen since March, according to the CryptoQuant data. Those deposits kept a large pool of coins available for sellers, which is why the net change in Binance's balance was only about 2.7% despite the headline withdrawal numbers. Total whale outflows over 30 days reached approximately 1.38 billion XRP, a seven-month high, yet deposits of 1.6 billion XRP more than offset them.
The more immediate trigger for the October price drop appears to have been forced liquidations in the leveraged trading market. On October 8, exchanges across the crypto market closed out more than $1.1 billion in leveraged positions, according to 24/7 Wall St. When a leveraged trade moves against a holder, the exchange closes the position automatically, generating forced selling that compounds downward price pressure regardless of what longer-term holders are doing.
One counterpoint in the data: U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds took in roughly $8.2 million on October 8, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum funds saw outflows that day. That said, 24/7 Wall St notes that XRP ETF holders remain underwater on their positions.
The broader picture is a market where two opposing flows are running simultaneously. Some large holders are moving coins into cold storage or off-exchange custody, reducing visible supply. Others are depositing coins onto Binance specifically to sell. A blockchain withdrawal looks identical whether the destination is a cold wallet, a custodian, a lending desk or a private sale, so the withdrawal signal alone cannot tell observers which category a given transfer falls into.
For anyone watching the XRP market, 24/7 Wall St identifies two levels worth tracking. If Binance's balance holds below 2.63 billion XRP while ETF inflows continue, that combination could indicate a tightening supply picture. If the balance climbs back above 2.70 billion and the price breaks below roughly $1.36, it would suggest that deposit-driven selling, rather than forced liquidations, is the dominant pressure. The distinction matters because forced liquidations tend to be self-limiting once leveraged positions are cleared, while deposit-driven selling reflects a more deliberate decision by holders to exit.
Bear Creek Capital Network publishes content for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this article constitutes financial, investment, tax or legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Consider your own circumstances and consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.