Investing
SpaceX and Nvidia: One Analyst's Case for a Fivefold Return by 2030
By Bear Creek Staff, . Bear Creek Capital Network.
A new analysis from The Motley Fool puts a fivefold return on the table for investors who split $10,000 between SpaceX and Nvidia by the end of 2030, but the math depends on a chain of assumptions that each carry real uncertainty.
The SpaceX side of the bet
The piece, written by Geoffrey Seiler, starts with SpaceX's AI infrastructure ambitions. Elon Musk has said the company aims to close this year with as much as 3 gigawatts of computing capacity, then reach at least 13 gigawatts by the end of 2027. Musk has also floated a longer-shot target of adding up to 20 gigawatts in a single year. Seiler estimates that one gigawatt of capacity built on Nvidia's Vera Rubin chip platform costs roughly $50 billion, which would put SpaceX's capital spending next year somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion.
From there, Seiler models SpaceX adding 10 gigawatts of capacity annually for five years, reaching 53 gigawatts by the end of 2031. Layering in Starlink, rocket launches and AI coding revenue, the analysis arrives at a possible $3 trillion in annual revenue by 2031. Applying a 5 times price-to-sales multiple and assuming 10 percent share dilution in 2027 stepping down by 1 percent a year, Seiler puts the stock at $750 a share by the end of 2030. At that price, 34 shares purchased today would be worth roughly $25,500.
The Nvidia side
Nvidia's upside in this model flows directly from SpaceX's spending. The analysis estimates Nvidia earns around $40 billion in revenue per gigawatt deployed on its Vera Rubin architecture, counting GPUs, networking components, CPUs, inference chips and software. If SpaceX alone adds 10 gigawatts a year, that single customer would generate roughly $400 billion in annual Nvidia revenue.
Seiler argues that current Wall Street estimates for Nvidia are too conservative given this dynamic. His model puts Nvidia's fiscal 2028 revenue closer to $850 billion, leading to adjusted earnings per share of nearly $61 in fiscal 2032. Applying a 19 times forward price-to-earnings multiple, which the piece describes as the current S&P 500 market multiple, yields a target of $1,160 per share. Twenty-three shares at that price would be worth roughly $26,650, bringing the combined total to just over $52,000.
What the model does not establish
The analysis is one writer's projection, not a consensus estimate or a verified forecast, and Seiler discloses no position in either stock. The Motley Fool holds positions in and recommends Nvidia.
Several links in the chain are speculative. SpaceX's revenue-per-gigawatt figures are Seiler's estimates, not disclosed financials. The 5 times price-to-sales multiple applied to SpaceX is an assumption, not a market-derived figure. The 19 times forward earnings multiple for Nvidia is described as the current S&P 500 average, but applying an index-average multiple to a company growing at this rate is a choice that reasonable analysts would debate. And the entire Nvidia revenue model assumes SpaceX can execute a capital program of historic scale without crowding out other Nvidia customers.
The payback period Musk has cited, currently about a year and potentially compressible to six months, is also his own projection rather than an audited result.
What investors should watch is whether SpaceX's actual gigawatt additions in 2025 and 2026 track anywhere near the targets Musk has outlined. A significant miss there would unwind both sides of this model simultaneously, since Nvidia's upside here is almost entirely a function of SpaceX's build rate. The next data point worth tracking is Nvidia's fiscal 2027 guidance, which will show whether hyperscaler demand is actually concentrating around Vera Rubin at the revenue-per-gigawatt rate the analysis assumes.
Bear Creek Capital Network publishes content for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this article constitutes financial, investment, tax or legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Consider your own circumstances and consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.