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Rio Tinto Posts 28% EBITDA Jump in First Half 2026 as Copper Hits 35.6% of Revenue
By Bear Creek Staff, . Bear Creek Capital Network.
Rio Tinto's first-half 2026 results, filed with the SEC on July 29, show the company generating underlying EBITDA of $14.8 billion, a 28% increase over the prior period, while free cash flow climbed 75% to $3.8 billion. The board declared an interim ordinary dividend of $3.4 billion, up 43%, according to the Form 6-K filing.
What the numbers show
Copper is now the story inside Rio Tinto. The metal accounted for 35.6% of group revenue in the first half of 2026, according to a Seeking Alpha analysis published alongside the results. That shift reflects both strong copper pricing and demand driven by electrification, as well as supply constraints that have kept prices elevated.
The aluminum segment held up despite tariff pressure and supply disruptions, the analysis notes. Iron ore is the weaker link: Chinese demand has stagnated, and ongoing negotiations with the China Minerals and Resources Group are adding uncertainty to that segment's near-term outlook.
The analyst's case
The Seeking Alpha piece rates Rio Tinto a buy, with a price target of $98.75, implying roughly 16% upside from the time of writing. The author applies a 6x EBITDA multiple and folds in a 5.6% dividend yield to arrive at a projected total return of 21.77%. The piece carries a standard disclosure that the author holds no position in the stock.
That total return figure deserves a qualifier: it is one analyst's projection built on a conservative multiple assumption, not a consensus estimate or a realized figure. The 6x EBITDA multiple is the analyst's own choice, and a different assumption changes the output materially.
What to watch
The practical question for investors is whether copper's growing share of revenue can offset iron ore's drag if Chinese steel demand stays soft. The 43% dividend increase signals management confidence in cash generation, but free cash flow at $3.8 billion still needs to be weighed against capital commitments in copper expansion.
The CMRG negotiation outcome is the near-term variable most likely to move iron ore segment earnings. No timeline or resolution was disclosed in the filing. On the copper side, the supply constraint thesis holds only as long as new projects remain delayed globally, which is the assumption the bull case rests on.
Sources
1. Rio Tinto: Good Price To Buy And Hold For A Strong 2027, seekingalpha.com
2. RIO TINTO PLC - Form 6-K - FY2026, sec.gov
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